The Twins at midseason: What the hell are we even doing here?

The Twins just passed the midway point of the 2023 regular season. It came in the middle of a series in which they were easily dismissed by the Braves. 

Now, being outclassed by one of the best teams in baseball is not in itself shameful. But it was just one more series where this poorly constructed, and at best questionably coached team displayed all their critical problems.

Overall the Twins sit at 40-42 and are very much in the race in the so far historically woeful AL Central. The apologists will tell you that all that matters is being in the race. Well, good news then. The Twins are probably not inept enough to tumble out of the division race, and nobody else is good enough to run away with it. So no matter what we are watching, the odds are extremely good that the Twins will be playing meaningful baseball well into September.

But what the hell are we doing? 

This is without question the worst "contending" Twins team I have ever seen. They are just a bad product. 

This fiasco has been coming a long time. The 2019 season was a mirage, a once in a lifetime convergence of power hitting players having career years and getting to hit juiced baseballs. Those manipulated balls are gone (well, unless you're Aaron Judge), and so are most of the players. Yet the Twins remain stuck trying to run it all back. 

And 4 years after setting the record for homeruns, they are on pace to shatter the MLB record for strikeouts. By like 100. They're still among the league leaders in homeruns, but at nowhere near a pace that can make up for striking out 10+ times a game. 

This lineup is comically bad. Game after game they just keep going up there and hacking away and striking out. 

And it is wasting a generally very good pitching staff. Joe Ryan is probably an all star. Sonny Gray has pitched at a mostly all star effort, just with fewer wins to show for it. Pablo Lopez has not been that good since April, but is a workhorse who gets deep into games. Bailey Ober has mostly pitched well. Kenta Maeda has come back off injury with a couple good outings. Jhoan Duran is an all star caliber closer (when they actually let him pitch). Brock Stewart (now hurt) has been a find in the pen.

But even this area of strength reflects poorly on what is the truest culprit to explain why this franchise is in mediocrity purgatory.

The front office. 

Out of the wreckage of the disastrous end to the Terry Ryan 2.0 era the Twins hired Derek Falvey and Thad Levine (aka Falvine) to run the show before the 2017 season. They were presented as being the right hires based on their supposed track record at drafting and developing pitching.

6 years later we are still waiting for this supposed strength to show up. Yes, Falvine have identified some pitchers in trades (4/5 of the current rotation, plus Duran), but again, in TRADES. The pipeline of young pitching that is crucial for a franchise like the Twins has yielded little. 

So yes, the Twins currently have a good starting rotation. But to get Gray you had to give up your 1st round draft pick Chase Petty. To get Lopez, you give up batting champ Luis Arraez, who is making a run at .400 in Miami.

Not to mention the guys NOT in the rotation. Tyler Mahle cost you two excellent hitting prospects. Chris Paddack cost you Taylor Rogers and Brent Rooker.

Falvine's track record with pitching has been mostly brutal. No argument with the trades swapping Nelson Cruz for Joe Ryan, or Eduardo Escobar for Duran. But this is also the front office that signed Alex Colome and Matt Shoemaker and Chris Archer, and traded for Jorge Lopez, Sam Dyson, and Emilio Pagan (who is somehow still on this fucking roster more than a year after he began blowing games on the regular). They have twice traded for injured starters then were shocked when those pitchers again were injured. 

And that's still the side of the team that is functioning. 

This lineup is a disaster, made up of first guess bad decisions, poorly developed young guys, and should-be cornerstone stars who look lost.

Is it the fault of hitting coach David Popkins? I mean, maybe? He was hired out of single A ball, which reeks of Falvine just wanting an easily bossed around figurehead. But he certainly did not come in with some track record. And would any other team take a guy up that many levels so fast? 

I do know that, yes, coaches are never 100% to blame for anything. But they are paid to maximize players performance and make them better. And NOBODY is getting better.

The two biggest issues here are Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. Both are talented enough to still hit the occasionally bomb or have a good game. But most of the time, they're striking out with the crowd, or in Correa's case hitting into double plays all the time. And these guys numbers with RISP are scarier than The Boogeyman. 

Correa had a solid, if underwhelming 2022, and was assumed to be gone. Then he signed with the Giants, then didn't, then signed with the Mets, then didn't, and wound up back here on a much smaller deal than anyone expected. So he fell in our lap again. But in fine Minnesota sports fashion this turned out bad. Correa has plantar fasciitis and may also have a bad ankle, and well, if those are what's holding him back they don't figure to get better. He has 5 1/2 years left on his contract. 

Byron Buxton is in even worse shape. For one thing, he apparently will never play in the outfield again. He has been a full time DH all year. The company line is that it is to keep him healthy. But it isn't keeping him healthy. And it sure isn't helping him at the plate. He has truly become a fast Sano, striking out all the time and occasionally hitting a ball very far. But this cannot continue. He cannot hog the DH spot for another 5 1/2 years, and do so while barely hitting .200.

Who isn't an object of blame in the lineup? Well, Royce Lewis has looked the part of a future star. Michael A. Taylor has been solid, with more power than expected. And...well...Donovan Solano has been okay. 

But then we have another major issue with this franchise. The hitting prospects either aren't really developing, or arrive in the majors but without the ability to play the position they are supposed to play.

Alex Kirilloff is a lineup regular, but it's getting to the point where we have to assume he will never live up to the expectations he had when he debuted in the 2020 playoffs. Edouard Julien looks capable at the plate, but is a butcher at 2B. Jose Miranda already stunk and got sent back to AAA, where he has improved and may be due for another shot, but he has nowhere to play. In the AAA OF we have Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner, who also may never pan out. 

Of course in those cases we may never find out because both are currently being blocked from even being here by the wastes of space Joey Gallo and Max Kepler. Nothing from a personnel standpoint on this team pisses me off more than the endless leash these two hacks are being shown.

Gallo was a preposterous signing to begin with. We finally get free of Sano the K machine, and Falvine quickly signed Gallo, coming off a .160 season. I guess the idea was that if Kirilloff couldn't play then Gallo was 1B. But....why him? Gallo will probably never play in the majors again after this season. He shouldn't be playing now.

And Kepler? Well this has been a multi-season trainwreck. Kepler had a big year in 2019, but was never good before that and has not been any good since. The company line here was that the new rules limiting shifts would help Kepler out. Instead, he is having his worst season yet, and has added in some fairly routine half-assed effort in the field to make it worse. It's as if Kepler wants to be released, yet this team keeps batting him high in the order.

Beyond all this, we have one time iron man Jorge Polanco being injured all the time. We gave a 3 year deal to weak hitting catcher Christian Vazquez, blocking the at least slightly more competent Ryan Jeffers.

I don't know where the future hope is here. Brooks Lee is probably the biggest prospect we have, but what are the odds he gets here and actually lives up to the billing? And regardless, he is not likely to help the 2023 team.

Does this season have hope? No. What, you want this front office to go out there and identify the right few players to bring in? I sure as fuck don't. I sure as fuck don't believe the team will get less injured. The pitching is more likely to regress than stay at this level.

Again, the AL Central is so bad that I don't see how the Twins aren't in this through September. Although they plummeted quite effectively last year. But if they blow this easy division again, heads need to roll. 

It will probably be Rocco Baldelli. I have never thought much of him, but this year I have come to pity him. His superiors gave him a lemon of a ballclub. This mess was created by Falvine, and they.should be the ones to go.