NO you don't have to tank!

Ah yes...tanking. That most desirable of strategies for fans of losing football teams. Lose a couple games early? Fuck it. Tank the season.

Hey why not? Tanking is how all NFL teams get great young franchise quarterbacks and win super bowls.

Except that's not how it works. That's not how it works at all.

Putting aside the stupidity of acting like a shiny new quarterback is the solution to all our problems, and also ignoring how seedy it is to root against your own team, there is also this one simple truth:

TANKING DOES NOT WORK!

It doesn't work, and it is also not needed. This isn't the NBA where a couple spots in a draft order can mean the difference between Shaquille O'Neal and Christian Laettner. In the NFL you can get a franchise QB (or star at any other position for that matter) anywhere.

But I'm here for a deep dive on this belief that you have to tank because you have to be able to draft a QB with the #1 pick or at least top 5 to actually find a QB.

Nope. Not even close.

First off, among the QBs generally considered to be the top guys heading into this year (Mahomes, Jackson, Brees, Brady, Roethlisberger, Watson, Rodgers, Wilson and Garappolo), NONE were picked in the top 5 of the draft, and only Mahomes sneaks in as a top 10 pick. 4 of those were not even first round picks.

Okay, so maybe other guys belong at or near that group. Even if we expand we get a few guys taken #1 (Murray, Goff, Newton) or at least top 5 (Rivers, Wentz, Matt Ryan), but we again get guys taken later in the first (Tannehill) or beyond the 1st at all (Prescott, Carr).

The two other active QBs to win super bowls are Foles (3rd round pick) and Flacco (18th pick).

So this is all essentially in the last 20 years of drafts, where scouting and evaluation is supposed to be the sharpest ever.

I checked all the Super Bowl winning quarterbacks going back the last 50 years. Of the 21 QBs yet to be named, we see a pretty similar breakdown. 

Six were taken 1st overall (the 2 Mannings, Aikman, Elway, Bradshaw and Jim Plunkett-who won on his 3rd team)

Only 2 others (Bob Griese and Jim McMahon) went in the top 5, and another 2 in the top 10 (Phil Simms and...snicker...Trent Dilfer).

EIGHT were drafted outside the first round (including Favre, Brad Johnson and some guy named Montana). Steve Young was a supplemental draft pick. Kurt Warner wasn't even drafted.

I didn't look up the draft positions of other great QBs over the years who didn't win super bowls, but just otoh I know Marino and Tarkenton weren't anywhere close to top 5 picks.

And just since 2000 the top 5 of the draft is littered with guys like Jamarcus Russell and Joey Harringston and Blake Bortles and RG3 and even the "I suppose the jury is still out" guys like Sam Darnold and Mitch Trubisky. 

A lot of the guys fans want to tank for don't pan out. And a lot of the guys who fans never even think of wind up becoming stars or winning super bowls.

Most don't even wind up being as good as the guy we have right now.

So y'all have fun with your Tank For Trevor or Lose For Lance bullshit. But you're rooting for the wrong things. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Message Board Classics: 2004 NFL Season

Preseason kickoff post (and other posts): Oh yes, it IS that time again. Training camps are open. The first preseason games are less than a week away. Players are already being idiots. It's the best time of the sports year. It is not yet the time for predictions, but I'll hit on some of the big recent stories. Ricky Williams retires. Well, we know now he did so cuz he was gonna be suspended for using marijuana. He's a little shit as far as I'm concerned. You do not abandon your team when he did. He had every right to retire, but do it at least before the draft. He's left the Dolphins with zero chance of making the playoffs. They couldn't go get Eddie George or Antowain Smith, nor could they draft a RB. The Cowboys cut Quincy Carter. I spent all offseason pleading with Dallas to go get a QB like Warner or Collins or Garcia. Instead they fail to upgrade, and now take a step back. Vinny is 80 years old and has little if anything left. My prediction is that Drew Hen...
Read more

Awful NFL season ends with awful Super Bowl

BUCCANEERS 31 CHIEFS 9 The 2020 NFL season is over. Thank god! A season that was almost across the board unenjoyable, and felt empty and largely felt manipulated, ended with the worst outcome imaginable. With a result that not only continues this 20 year nightmare but that will frankly hurt the NFL for years to come. I was not looking forward to this game. I knew this was going to happen. Maybe not in blowout fashion but I knew the NFL was going to see to it that Tom Brady got his 7th title. The house wins. The game was never fun. Right from the start the Chiefs seemed sleepy, like they weren't really in it. This team plays with swagger, but in this game they had none. Patrick Mahomes was under enormous pressure from the start. The Chiefs grabbed the 1st lead at 3-0 but then from basically the end of the 1st quarter until halftime it was a nightmare. The Chiefs offense remained lifeless. The Chiefs defense did manage a goal line stand that at the moment seemed like it could be a tu...
Read more