2024 NFL Predictions

I'm kind of ashamed at myself for how boring my picks this year are. I only have 3 new playoff teams, which is not going to be right. There were a few potential surprises I just couldn't pull the trigger on. 

In: Colts, Bengals and Falcons

Out: Steelers, Buccaneers, Browns 

For the record, my would-be surprise teams in the AFC are the Chargers and Titans.

In the NFC? The Cardinals, the Panthers, and, yeah, the Vikings.

But I couldn't do it. For the first time since at least 2016 (I didn't go check), I'm not picking the Vikings to make the playoffs. Just all the vibes and warning signs tell me it ain't happening. 

We lose JJ McCarthy for the season. And yeah, if Sam Darnold plays well, JJ might not have played much anyway. But it buzzkilled the excitement off that preseason game.

Our secondary, already thin, had a horrible summer. Khyree Jackson died. Mekhi Blackmon was out for the year after one practice. Draft busts Lewis Cine and Andrew Booth were tossed aside.

Jordan Addison got arrested for drunk driving and is probably getting suspended. TJ Hockenson is out til at least October, still recovering from that Kerby Joseph cheapshot last year.

And the NFC North is tough. I'm not buying the Bears hype, but you can't just assume they're a pushover. The Packers and even the still fraud Lions are better than us. I'm not even mad at the Vikings being rated so low in power rankings or being picked last. It might happen.

Why might it not?

Well, this roster does have a lot of talent. If KOC can bring something competent out of Darnold, he should be able to throw for a lot of yards, and may be backed by a much improved run game with Aaron Jones. 

It's year two of Brian Flores, and the roster turnover has given him more of the personnel he wants. We did bring in Stephon Gilmore to help in the back end. 

The schedule is tough early, but if you can get to November with at least 3 wins, the path is there to get to 9 or 10 wins, which puts you in the wild card mix.

I don't think either KOC or Kwesi are on any hot seat. The JJ McCarthy injury takes care of that. You have to find out if he can play before you make any big changes. I think even a competitive 7-10 season, which is my official pick, will be fine under the circumstances.

On to the league picks...

In the NFC, my only changes are the Falcons winning the south (yes, I'm still riding with Kirk 16 of 17 weeks), and the Packers supplanting the Lions in the north. It sucks, but Green Bay was clearly the better team at the end of last season, and the Lions cashed in a lot of their lottery tickets last year. 

That leaves the 49ers again in the West, Dallas again in the east, and wild cards for the Eagles and Rams.

In the AFC, my biggest change is the Colts in the south. I'm betting on a full season of Anthony Richardson being enough to overtake the Texans, who are one of those upstart teams that usually take a step back (though I suspect a small one). And my other change is having the Bengals back in thenpkayoffs with Joe Burrow back.

I have the Dolphins taking the east from the Bills this time. The Ravens still rule the north.

And the Chiefs again take the west.

And the Super Bowl. 

Yeah, no team has ever three-peated. No team has ever made it further than a conference title game with the opportunity, and even that was 30 years ago. But no team has ever been better positioned than the Chiefs. They had a "down" year in 2023 and still were able to win 2 road playoff games and overcome the 49ers. Mahomes will have much better receivers this year, and he now has a top defense to help out. And I just don't see anybody other than Baltimore getting in their way. 

And yeah, I think the Chiefs beat the 49ers again. I have the Falcons making it to the NFCCG (it would be SO Vikings for Kirk to go further in year one in Atlanta then he ever did here), but I don't think any NFC team will go into the bay in January and win.

I loathe lazy people who pick Super Bowl rematches. I've become what I despise. But I just don't see anything else.