Twins at midseason

Yes, even 60 game seasons get a midseason report. 

The Twins have reached that midpoint, and despite a great many bumps in the road, they have to feel pretty good about where they stand.

They aren't much of a Bomba Squad this year. But they have probably their best collective pitching staff since 1991.

One of the great things about baseball is that you never know exactly what to expect in a given season. If you had told me a month ago that:

-Josh Donaldson would only play one bad week then be hurt

-Luis Arraez would also be hurt, and be bit by a nasty sophomore slump

-Mitch Garver would be awful

-Miguel Sano would be as bad as he has ever been for the first couple weeks

-Byron Buxton would only have about 1 week as an effective hitter

-You would have maybe 3 decent starts COMBINED from Odorizzi, Hill and Bailey

-Jose Berrios would have more bad starts than good ones

-Taylor Rogers would look like a total mess

-You would have several other planned bullpen arms hurt

I would have guessed the Twins were clinging to their playoff contending lives. Instead, they are tied atm with Tampa Bay for the 2nd best record in the American League, and 3rd best in all of baseball behind the Dodgers and A's.

So how have they done it, and where do they go from here?

Well, the pitching staff has held up. There have been a few blowups, but mostly by the Lewis Thorpe and Zack Littell types. Even the bad starts have not been THAT awful.

It's mostly been very good news when people are able to pitch. The Berrios struggles have been offset by the fantastic performances of Kenta Maeda and Randy Dobnak. Maeda looks like one of the great trade acquisitions in franchise history, and Dobnak has been the dream ground ball-inducing pitcher. 

The bullpen is probably the  best the Twins have ever had. Again, even with Rogers looking like a mess, you feel pretty secure when the Teins lead a game past the 6th. Duffey, May, Clippard, Romo. All have been excellent. And the Twins seem to have finally cracked the code so many other teams have regarding finding bullpen arms. They just keep bringing in these guys like Jorge Alcala and Matt Wisler (the designated opener it seems) and even retread Caleb Thielbar. And they are all good.

It's all served to limit the damage done by the lineup simply not being anything close to what they were last year. Now, expecting them to be what they were last year was unrealistic. But they are just a middle of the pack offense now.

Nelson Cruz is making as good a case for a DH as MVP as anyone ever has, but behind him it's been a frustrating mix of solid production (Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Gonzalez) and mediocrity or worse (Garver, Arraez, Cave, Donaldson for the week we had him). In between are Sano and Buxton. Sano was horrifically bad early on but has started mashing. Buxton had one stellar week surrounded by flailing, and he's now hurt AGAIN.

It's been maddening watching them struggle to ever even get above 5 runs. But I don't discount the value in the team being able to win lower scoring games. Last year they just bludgeoned everybody, but when the runs ran dry they had no chance.

And there is still a chance this offense can kick things up a notch, especially if Donaldson can come back and be what they expected (unlikely).

The trade deadline is a week away. I really don't expect the Twins to do much, and I think overall this deadline will be very quiet, since damn near every team is still in contention. I certainly don't expect the Twins to make any pitching moves. Pineda will be back in a week, and if Odorizzi or Bailey can still contribute that's all the starting pitching you need. And the pen seems set.

I have been very much in favor of them trying to get a rental 3rd baseman, or even a 2nd baseman. I want Gonzalez to go back to being the super utility guy. And I REALLY don't want them to get into a playoff series and have to start an Adrianza or Vargas, or both.

Sadly I checked out the list of such rental players who would possibly be available, and there is just not much out there. So if any such move got made it would have to be a little more creative.

The good news for the Twins is that they are a mortal lock to at least make the playoffs. The AL has a half dozen teams already buried. You can pretty much write 7 teams into the playoffs in pen right now (Twins, Indians, White Sox, Yankees, Rays, A's, Astros), with only 2 other teams (Blue Jays and Orioles) at .500.

So they're in. Now it's all about winning the division. You HAVE to win the central, and get one of those top 3 spots. Even this year the Twins seem to have a home field edge. And a top 3 seed makes it almost completely impossible that they would face the Yankees right away.

The Twins 2nd half schedule features more Cleveland and Chicago, but also a lot more Detroit and no more Kansas City (HALLELURRRR!). We will know by mid-September where this team will stand. Those 10 games, mostly on the road, against Cleveland and the 2 Chicagos is the make or break stretch.